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Pre-Existing Trends: The 2013 CT Gun Control Law

Friday, March 9, 2018

Pre-Existing Trends: The 2013 CT Gun Control Law

Connecticut is often held up as a model of gun-control by gun control advocates and in-state legislators alike. The state enacted some of the most stringent gun control laws after the Sandy Hook tragedy. Specific measures included expanding the list of banned firearms, limiting magazine capacity, requiring registration of certain rifles and magazines previously –acquired, and expanding background checks.

WNPR reported that 2016 was the lowest homicide rate ever, according to state data. We examined this state data; 2016 was the lowest going back to at least 1990. What WNPR – and gun control advocates touting the 2013 Connecticut gun control laws – fail to mention is that the homicide rate increased each year from 2013 through 2015 before hitting the historic low in 2016. They also overlook that the homicide rate fell in 2010, 2011, and only increased in 2012 because of the monster who used stolen firearms to attack a school. The tragedy at Sandy Hook accounted for a 9.5% increase in the homicide rate from 2011 to 2012; outside of that single day, Connecticut would have seen an 11.5% decrease in the homicide rate. 

It is reasonable to assume that the 2013 gun control laws were designed to impact all crime and not “just” homicides. Looking at the overall violent crime rate (which includes homicide, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery), there is a clear and pre-existing downward trend that started in the early 1990s.  This is the same trend, by the way, that most of the country experienced over the same period.

Using data provided by the Connecticut Department of Public Safety, we calculated a gun crime rate. This figure represents the number of homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies involving a firearm per 100,000 population. A downward trend began in the mid-2000s and continued through 2015 with a single exception: 2012. The Sandy Hook attack is not the only driver of the 2012 increase, but it did change the rate of increase between 2011-2012 from 0.3% to 1.6%.

Much like we saw with the Australian confiscation, a downward trend existed before the policy was changed. Attributing continued reductions to crime rates without regard for pre-existing trends is a favored device of the anti-gun researcher, but it shouldn’t be used to deceive Americans in such ways. Our analysis suggests that if you want to enact gun control, then you are free to advocate that position, but please also admit to the public that you are deceiving them when you claim that such restrictions actually have a positive impact on crime

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NRA Opposes David Chipman for ATF Director

News  

Friday, April 9, 2021

NRA Opposes David Chipman for ATF Director

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In New Executive Gun Control Push, Biden Seems to Throw Obama, and Himself, Under the Bus

News  

Monday, April 12, 2021

In New Executive Gun Control Push, Biden Seems to Throw Obama, and Himself, Under the Bus

At Biden's recent Rose Garden ceremony, where he announced his latest assault on the Second Amendment, he lied a number of times, and garbled the name of the federal agency tasked with enforcing federal gun ...

A Radical Idea: It’s Not the Gun, it’s the Criminal

News  

Monday, April 12, 2021

A Radical Idea: It’s Not the Gun, it’s the Criminal

Rahm Emanuel, recently the mayor of Chicago and who has previously served as a member of the Clinton Administration and as President Obama’s White House chief of staff, proposed a few curious gun control ideas ...

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

Gun Laws  

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

CAUTION: Federal and state firearms laws are subject to frequent change. This summary is not to be considered as legal advice or a restatement of law.

Texas: Urge Your Lawmakers to Pass Permitless Carry this Session

Monday, April 12, 2021

Texas: Urge Your Lawmakers to Pass Permitless Carry this Session

House Bill 1911, by Rep. James White (R-Woodville), and House Bill 1927, by Rep. Matt Schaefer (R-Tyler), NRA-backed permitless carry proposals that would allow law-abiding citizens to carry a handgun without a state-issued License To Carry (LTC), have been reported ...

New Jersey: Gov. Murphy Announces Drastic Gun Control Agenda

Thursday, April 15, 2021

New Jersey: Gov. Murphy Announces Drastic Gun Control Agenda

Thursday morning, Gov. Phil Murphy held a press conference to unveil yet another gun control package in the Garden State.  

Hunter Biden Incident Shows that Gun Laws are for the Little People

News  

Monday, April 5, 2021

Hunter Biden Incident Shows that Gun Laws are for the Little People

There is a central hypocrisy at the heart of the gun control effort.

South Carolina House Passes Constitutional Carry

Friday, April 9, 2021

South Carolina House Passes Constitutional Carry

Yesterday, the House voted to pass House Bill 3096 on third reading. It has been sent to the Senate for further consideration.

Texas: Permitless Carry Scheduled for House Consideration on Thursday!

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Texas: Permitless Carry Scheduled for House Consideration on Thursday!

House Bill 1927, by Rep. Matt Schaefer (R-Tyler), an NRA-backed permitless carry proposal that would allow law-abiding citizens to carry a handgun without a state-issued License To Carry (LTC), will be debated by the full Texas House on Thursday!

NRA-backed Constitutional Carry Signed in Tennessee

News  

Thursday, April 8, 2021

NRA-backed Constitutional Carry Signed in Tennessee

Gov. Bill Lee signs NRA-backed constitutional carry bill to advance the self-defense rights of all Tennessee gun owners. 

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NRA ILA

Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.