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Increase in Violent Crime: National Trend Driven by Local Politics?

Friday, January 13, 2017

Increase in Violent Crime: National Trend Driven by Local Politics?

The FBI released its Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report earlier this week and the bad news is that violent crime increased for the second consecutive year.

Looking at the January to June period, violent crime decreased from 2012-2013 and then again from 2013-2014. From 2014-2015, we experienced an increase of 1.7%. From 2015-2016? An increase of 5.3%. This includes increases in all categories of violent crime – murder and non-negligent manslaughter, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery – compared to the first six months of 2015. 

We can’t determine the roots of the increase without additional data. What the existing data does reveal is that the increase in violent crime has not been experienced uniformly throughout the country.

Metropolitan counties experienced a larger increase in violent crime than non-metropolitan counties (6.3% to 1.6%, respectively). Cities with a million or more residents had the largest increase in violent crime from the same period last year (+9.7%). Cities with half a million to a just under a million residents experienced an increase of 5.2% in violent crime and smaller cities experienced a 4.3% increase. Large cities with a million or more residents were also the site of an increasing number of property crimes (+2.1%) while smaller cities saw marginal increases or even decreasing amounts of property crime. 

Some cities had a more severe increase in violent crime than others. Chicago suffered through 13,729 violent crimes (including 317 murders) in the first six months of 2016. That’s 503 per 100,000 residents – an increase of 97 violent crimes since the same time the prior year. 

Baltimore, a city with roughly one quarter as many residents as Chicago, had 5,176 violent crimes during early 2016. That is a rate of 833 per 100,000 residents and an increase of 153 points from the early 2015 rate. 

Not all major cities – or even all cities with historically high violent crime rates – had spikes as dramatic as Chicago and Baltimore. Detroit’s violent crime rate decreased from 861 per 100,000 residents in 2015 to 803 in early 2016. Houston went from 449 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in early 2015 to 509 per 100,000 in early 2016, and Dallas went from 333 to 367. Metropolitan Las Vegas went from 435 violent crimes per 100,000 residents to 465. 

While these are just a handful of cities from across the country, their citizens saw significantly different increases in violent crime rates during the first six months of 2016. This initial data indicates that while overall crime levels may simply be leveling off after several years of decline, local policies and events are an important factor in how bad things got in specific cities in early 2016.

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Monday, April 12, 2021

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At Biden's recent Rose Garden ceremony, where he announced his latest assault on the Second Amendment, he lied a number of times, and garbled the name of the federal agency tasked with enforcing federal gun ...

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

Gun Laws  

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Guide To The Interstate Transportation Of Firearms

CAUTION: Federal and state firearms laws are subject to frequent change. This summary is not to be considered as legal advice or a restatement of law.

New Jersey: Gov. Murphy Announces Drastic Gun Control Agenda

Thursday, April 15, 2021

New Jersey: Gov. Murphy Announces Drastic Gun Control Agenda

Thursday morning, Gov. Phil Murphy held a press conference to unveil yet another gun control package in the Garden State.  

A Radical Idea: It’s Not the Gun, it’s the Criminal

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Monday, April 12, 2021

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Rahm Emanuel, recently the mayor of Chicago and who has previously served as a member of the Clinton Administration and as President Obama’s White House chief of staff, proposed a few curious gun control ideas ...

Texas: Urge Your Lawmakers to Pass Permitless Carry this Session

Monday, April 12, 2021

Texas: Urge Your Lawmakers to Pass Permitless Carry this Session

House Bill 1911, by Rep. James White (R-Woodville), and House Bill 1927, by Rep. Matt Schaefer (R-Tyler), NRA-backed permitless carry proposals that would allow law-abiding citizens to carry a handgun without a state-issued License To Carry (LTC), have been reported ...

Texas House Approves NRA-Backed Permitless Carry Bill

Friday, April 16, 2021

Texas House Approves NRA-Backed Permitless Carry Bill

Early Thursday evening, on a 84-56 vote, the Texas House gave initial approval to House Bill 1927, by Rep. Matt Schaefer (R-Tyler), an NRA-backed permitless carry proposal that would allow law-abiding citizens to carry a handgun without a state-issued License To ...

South Carolina House Passes Constitutional Carry

Friday, April 9, 2021

South Carolina House Passes Constitutional Carry

Yesterday, the House voted to pass House Bill 3096 on third reading. It has been sent to the Senate for further consideration.

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Monday, April 5, 2021

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There is a central hypocrisy at the heart of the gun control effort.

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Thursday, April 15, 2021

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Earlier this week, the Senate voted to pass House bill 1366 and House Bill 31. The bills will now be transmitted to Governor David Ige for his consideration.

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Established in 1975, the Institute for Legislative Action (ILA) is the "lobbying" arm of the National Rifle Association of America. ILA is responsible for preserving the right of all law-abiding individuals in the legislative, political, and legal arenas, to purchase, possess and use firearms for legitimate purposes as guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.